Recent polls done by political polling sites FiveThirtyEight (538) and Real Clear Politics showed that Joe Biden was in the lead over Donald Trump by 8 points and 7.5 points, respectively. 538 wrote that “it doesn’t seem as if Joe Biden’s advantage is shrinking” but that it “still shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning.” Additionally, 538’s current analyses shows that Biden has a 72% chance of winning the electoral college.
Mood between now and Election Day. Fight for the soul of this nation! Vote. Don’t pay attention to the polls. Vote. Vote. Vote. Vote. pic.twitter.com/O0YmB1ciiW— 📎Lesley-Ann Brandt (@LesleyAnnBrandt) August 13, 2020
“For many of the reluctant Trump supporters who were willing to put up with his persona in exchange for economic prosperity, the current economic climate no longer upholds this bargain.”Philip Elliott, Washington Correspondent for TIME magazine
Vox’s Zeeshan Aleem wrote that “polls in recent months have shown that the public finds [the pandemic] to be the most important issue facing the nation.” Many agree that it is even more important to voters than the economy and is a factor that will indeed favor Biden. However, analyst and 538 founder Nate Silver noted that Biden’s 8 point lead is truly more like a 6 point one, due to “tipping point states,” and stated: “Six-point leads in August are historically not very safe…It’s way too soon to count Trump out.”
The Right believes Trump still has a winning chance. Hot Air pointed out that according to polls from the 2016 elections, Hillary’s lead surged even higher than Biden’s, hitting 99% at one point according to some pollsters and ultimately ending with Hillary at a 71% chance of winning.
“Trump has the same chance of winning now as he did in November 2016.”Allahpundit, senior editor for Hot Air
Political columnist Joseph Curl believes that “secret Trump supporters” will turn up come election time, tipping the results in his favor. However, Rich Danker, former US Department of the Treasury staff, pointed out that Trump has lost the lead in one important demographic: whites without college degrees. He argues that civil rights is still an issue most voters deeply care about, and wrote, “The candidate that has the most satisfying response to the racialization epidemic will probably win the election.”